Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.086074 0.098838 0.112734 0.128974 0.147416 0.167694 0.191667
2026-02-08 0.064895 0.080999 0.099929 0.123772 0.152946 0.187428 0.231216
2026-02-15 0.049618 0.066959 0.088850 0.118399 0.157117 0.205985 0.272191
2026-02-22 0.040792 0.059271 0.084223 0.120162 0.170345 0.237641 0.334385
2026-03-01 0.031904 0.049836 0.075690 0.115341 0.174199 0.257831 0.385026
2026-03-08 0.025443 0.042615 0.068980 0.111912 0.179442 0.280767 0.443215
2026-03-15 0.020476 0.036688 0.063133 0.108734 0.184523 0.304246 0.505943
2026-03-22 0.017601 0.033594 0.061199 0.111401 0.199186 0.344561 0.600810
2026-03-29 0.014730 0.029915 0.057610 0.110650 0.208062 0.376869 0.687589
2026-04-05 0.012682 0.027325 0.055469 0.112066 0.220917 0.417717 0.794860
2026-04-12 0.011036 0.025171 0.053737 0.113923 0.234856 0.462434 0.915415
2026-04-19 0.008999 0.021753 0.048880 0.108795 0.234609 0.481074 0.990585
2026-04-26 0.007179 0.018441 0.043701 0.102282 0.231011 0.493779 1.058410
2026-05-03 0.005924 0.016135 0.040237 0.098801 0.233163 0.518318 1.153795
2026-05-10 0.004877 0.014075 0.036905 0.094978 0.233945 0.540248 1.247375
2026-05-17 0.004313 0.013130 0.036044 0.096813 0.247895 0.592478 1.413663
2026-05-24 0.003579 0.011523 0.033186 0.093187 0.248391 0.615091 1.518041
2026-05-31 0.003015 0.010249 0.030918 0.090613 0.251010 0.642981 1.638709
2026-06-07 0.002550 0.009143 0.028860 0.088182 0.253568 0.671131 1.764214
2026-06-14 0.002306 0.008680 0.028537 0.090504 0.269040 0.733054 1.980489
2026-06-21 0.002014 0.007967 0.027314 0.089989 0.276733 0.776594 2.157151
2026-06-28 0.001806 0.007491 0.026715 0.091234 0.289631 0.835536 2.381744
2026-07-05 0.001631 0.007084 0.026254 0.092826 0.303855 0.900121 2.630270